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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd