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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.