A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
